Why Your Corn Cash Bid Differs From USDA’s Forecast

Your elevator’s corn offer is easier to understand when you separate the national forecast from futures and the local cash bid. USDA forecasts an average across the marketing year; your buyer offers a price for a particular delivery period. Knowing the difference helps you compare actual selling opportunities.

USDA forecasts a national average, not your sale price

The season-average farm price—also called the marketing-year average—is the national average price received by U.S. farmers over a 12-month marketing year. For corn, that year runs from September through August.

Monthly prices are weighted by the share of corn marketed each month. A month with more sales has more influence on the final average than a month with fewer sales. It is not a simple average of daily elevator bids.

USDA’s forecast estimates that national result before the year is complete. It does not promise that your elevator will offer the forecast price today or later in the season. USDA’s explanation of season-average prices provides the calculation details.

Your local bid connects futures and basis

Futures are exchange-traded contracts for future delivery, with a specified contract month. The cash market is where physical grain moves through elevators, processors and terminals.

A local cash bid has two price components:
Cash bid = futures price + local basis.

Basis means the local cash price minus the relevant futures price. A negative basis puts the cash bid below futures; a positive basis puts it above futures. USDA’s season-average forecast does not belong in place of futures in this equation. For a teaching example—not a current quote—Iowa State Extension shows $5.70-per-bushel futures plus a negative $0.20 basis producing a $5.50 cash bid. In buyer language, that basis is “20 under.”

Transportation, storage, local supply and buyer demand help explain the difference between cash and futures prices. Those conditions also help explain why nearby buyers can offer different bids against the same futures contract. Iowa State’s corn and soybean basis guide, revised in March 2022, explains these relationships.

For example, if two elevators use the same $5.70 futures price, Elevator A with a basis of −$0.20 offers $5.50 per bushel, while Elevator B with a basis of −$0.35 offers $5.35. That 15-cent difference comes from local basis, not USDA's national forecast. These are illustrative prices, not current market quotes.

Two September estimates illustrate the distinction

In its September 2026 market analysis, Iowa State Extension reported USDA’s 2026/27 corn season-average forecast at $4.80 per bushel. The same analysis reported a futures-based season-average estimate of about $5.25 per bushel on September 11, 2026.

These are historical estimates from September 2026, not current market quotes. The difference between $4.80 and approximately $5.25 reflects two approaches to estimating a national season-average price, not a 45-cent opportunity at a local elevator. Neither figure tells you what a particular buyer will pay for your corn today. To evaluate an actual sale, you need a current cash bid for your intended delivery period.

Compare offers for the same delivery

Start your next buyer conversation with two questions: “What delivery period does this bid cover?” and “Which futures contract month does it use?”

Compare cash bids quoted at the same time for matching delivery terms. If you calculate basis yourself, use the futures quote from that same time and the contract underlying each buyer's bid.

**A higher cash bid does not always leave you with more money.**

Consider this hypothetical comparison for the same delivery period:
| Cash bid | Elevator A – $4.60/bu | Elevator B – $4.75/bu |
| Estimated hauling cost | Elevator A – $0.10/bu | Elevator B – $0.30/bu |
| Price after hauling | Elevator A – $4.50/bu | Elevator B – $4.45/bu |

Elevator B offers 15 cents more per bushel, but the additional transportation cost makes Elevator A the better offer in this example.

For a 10,000-bushel load, that five-cent difference amounts to $500 before any other applicable costs or deductions. These are illustrative prices and transportation costs, not current quotes. Actual hauling costs depend on distance, fuel, equipment, labor and other expenses. Also check whether the buyers apply different moisture, drying, shrink, test-weight or other quality-related discounts and fees. Confirm the delivery window, grading requirements and payment terms before comparing the expected proceeds. Use USDA's season-average forecast as national market context. Use actual buyer bids, delivery terms, transportation costs and applicable deductions to evaluate the sale in front of you.

The useful question is not “Why is my elevator below USDA's forecast?” but “Which available offer leaves me with the best return for the corn I'm selling?”